Monthly · Census Bureau via FRED
Retail Sales is the monthly scoreboard for consumer spending on goods - the real-time pulse of whether Americans are opening their wallets or pulling back. It covers everything from grocery stores and gas stations to clothing retailers and auto dealerships. Published monthly by the Census Bureau, it is one of the most important economic releases for markets and Fed policymakers.
YoY growth above 5% signals robust consumer demand. Between 2-5% is healthy. Below 2% suggests consumers are pulling back on goods spending. Negative YoY is a warning sign. Strip out autos and gas to see the underlying trend - the control group ex-autos, gas, building materials, and food service feeds directly into GDP and is the cleanest measure of discretionary goods spending. A single weak print is often noise - the 3-month trend tells you whether consumers are genuinely pulling back or just pausing.
Make your call first. You'll learn more from being wrong than from reading the analysis cold.
Make your call. We'll score it when the next release drops.
Analysis updated: Nov 4, 2026
A retail sales reading of $745.0B with a rising trend signals robust consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. GDP and suggests underlying household demand remains resilient. Strong nominal sales growth, if sustained above inflation, points to genuine real consumption gains that could support continued economic expansion and positive corporate earnings revisions.
Rising nominal retail sales may be partially or wholly driven by persistent price pressures rather than volume growth, meaning consumers are spending more while buying less — a classic inflation-distortion risk. Additionally, as a coincident or lagging indicator, elevated retail sales at this stage of the cycle could reflect consumers drawing down savings or rotating into credit-financed spending, raising concerns about the durability of this momentum and potential vulnerability to any tightening in credit conditions.
At $745.0B, this reading must be evaluated against concurrent CPI and PCE data to determine whether real consumption is genuinely accelerating or if nominal figures are flattering an otherwise softening volume trend. Key thresholds to monitor include real disposable income growth, consumer credit delinquency rates, and the personal savings rate — any deterioration in these would reframe the strong headline number as a late-cycle warning rather than a signal of durable strength.
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