Monthly · Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED
The CFNAI is a monthly economic activity index built from 85 existing indicators spanning production, income, employment, and consumption. Rather than tracking one economic measure, it aggregates dozens of them into a single reading that filters out individual data point noise. Published monthly by the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank with roughly a one-month lag.
Zero represents trend growth for the U.S. economy historically. Positive means above-trend growth. Negative means below-trend. A 3-month moving average below -0.7 has been a reliable recession signal - the NBER has used it as part of their recession dating process. Above 0.2 indicates solid economic momentum. Because it aggregates 85 indicators, the CFNAI is less subject to any single data distortion than individual economic releases. It is most useful for confirming signals from other indicators rather than as a standalone alert.
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Analysis updated: Jun 18, 2026
A CFNAI reading of +0.14 signals that national economic activity is running modestly above its historical trend, consistent with a soft-landing narrative where growth remains positive without generating excess inflationary pressure. The rising trend reinforces this optimism, suggesting that the expansion has momentum heading into the next two quarters. If this trajectory holds, it would support continued labor market resilience and reduced recession risk through late 2026.
While positive, a reading of only +0.14 sits barely above the zero threshold, leaving the economy with limited buffer against adverse shocks such as renewed tariff escalation, a credit tightening event, or a deterioration in consumer confidence. The index's recent rise could reflect base effects or transitory strength in one subcomponent rather than broad-based improvement across all 85 underlying indicators. Given the index's 3–6 month lead time, a failure to sustain readings above +0.20 would raise concern about a growth deceleration materializing by Q3–Q4 2026.
The CFNAI's zero baseline represents trend growth for the U.S. economy, so a +0.14 print confirms expansion but not acceleration, placing current conditions in a modestly constructive but not euphoric zone. This reading should be interpreted alongside the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs, real personal consumption data, and the Fed's evolving rate path, all of which will determine whether the leading signal translates into sustained activity. The critical threshold to monitor is a three-month moving average crossing above +0.35, which has historically been associated with above-trend growth, or dropping below -0.35, which would signal meaningful recession risk.
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