Monthly · Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED
The CFNAI is a monthly economic activity index built from 85 existing indicators spanning production, income, employment, and consumption. Rather than tracking one economic measure, it aggregates dozens of them into a single reading that filters out individual data point noise. Published monthly by the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank with roughly a one-month lag.
Zero represents trend growth for the U.S. economy historically. Positive means above-trend growth. Negative means below-trend. A 3-month moving average below -0.7 has been a reliable recession signal - the NBER has used it as part of their recession dating process. Above 0.2 indicates solid economic momentum. Because it aggregates 85 indicators, the CFNAI is less subject to any single data distortion than individual economic releases. It is most useful for confirming signals from other indicators rather than as a standalone alert.
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Analysis updated: Nov 5, 2026
A reading of +0.07 places the CFNAI marginally above its historical average of zero, signaling that the U.S. economy is expanding at a pace modestly above trend. Given the index's 3–6 month leading property, this reading suggests underlying economic momentum heading into early-to-mid 2027 remains intact, reducing the probability of a near-term contraction. The rising trend further reinforces the case that broad-based productive activity across employment, production, and consumption is gradually firming.
While positive, a reading of only +0.07 is barely above neutral and offers limited conviction that growth is sustainably accelerating, particularly if the recent rise reflects base effects rather than genuine momentum. The CFNAI's composition—spanning 85 monthly indicators—means a marginal positive can mask significant dispersion, with some sub-indices potentially still in contraction. If the rising trend stalls or reverses in coming months, the index could quickly re-enter negative territory, historically associated with below-trend growth and rising recession risk when sustained below -0.70.
The CFNAI reading of +0.07 arrives against a backdrop of ongoing monetary policy normalization, where the lagged effects of prior rate cycles continue to filter through credit-sensitive sectors. The key threshold to monitor is the three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3); a sustained reading above +0.20 would more confidently signal above-trend expansion, while a drop below -0.70 on the MA3 has historically been a reliable recession signal. Upcoming releases in industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, and personal income will be critical in confirming whether the current upward trajectory is broadening across the index's four sub-categories.
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