The CFNAI is a monthly economic activity index built from 85 existing indicators spanning production, income, employment, and consumption. Rather than tracking one economic measure, it aggregates dozens of them into a single reading that filters out individual data point noise. Published monthly by the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank with roughly a one-month lag.
Zero represents trend growth for the U.S. economy historically. Positive means above-trend growth. Negative means below-trend. A 3-month moving average below -0.7 has been a reliable recession signal - the NBER has used it as part of their recession dating process. Above 0.2 indicates solid economic momentum. Because it aggregates 85 indicators, the CFNAI is less subject to any single data distortion than individual economic releases. It is most useful for confirming signals from other indicators rather than as a standalone alert.
Your projection for Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Analysis updated: Apr 2, 2026·Next refresh: ~1:05 AM EST
At -0.11, the CFNAI remains only marginally below its historical average of zero, suggesting the economy is decelerating modestly rather than contracting meaningfully. Given that readings above -0.70 on the three-month moving average have historically been inconsistent with recession, the current level implies underlying economic resilience and a soft-landing trajectory remains plausible. A stabilization or mild rebound in the coming months would reinforce the view that this weakness is transitory rather than the start of a sustained downturn.
The falling trend in the CFNAI is a meaningful warning signal given its leading indicator properties, implying that economic conditions 3–6 months forward could weaken further from an already sub-trend reading. Persistent sub-zero prints, particularly if the three-month moving average approaches the -0.70 threshold, have historically preceded official recession designations. Combined with still-restrictive monetary policy and softening labor market data, the downward momentum raises the risk of a more pronounced growth slowdown materializing by mid-2026.
The CFNAI aggregates 85 indicators across production, employment, consumption, and housing, making it one of the broadest coincident and leading gauges of U.S. economic activity. The current reading of -0.11 sits in a zone that reflects below-trend growth consistent with a late-cycle environment, particularly relevant as the Fed navigates the lagged effects of its tightening cycle. Key levels to monitor include the three-month moving average crossing -0.70, which would signal elevated recession risk, as well as incoming labor market and industrial production data that carry the heaviest weight in the index.
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