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OverviewGrowth & Global FlowsExports of Goods & Services

Exports of Goods & Services

Growth & Global FlowsLaggingMonthly · BEA via FRED
0
Strong
Health Score

What Is This?

U.S. Exports measures the value of American goods and services sold to foreign buyers - everything from soybeans and aircraft to software licenses and financial services. Strong exports reflect that U.S. producers are globally competitive and that the world economy has healthy demand for American products. Published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Units
Billions of USD (SAAR)
Frequency
monthly
Source
BEA via FRED
Type
lagging

How To Read It

Rising exports indicate healthy global demand and a competitive dollar. A strong dollar (high relative to trading partner currencies) makes U.S. exports more expensive and tends to suppress export growth. Falling exports outside of dollar strength often signal weakening global growth. Services exports (finance, intellectual property, education, healthcare) are increasingly important and tend to be more stable than goods exports. Watch exports relative to imports - the gap determines the trade balance that directly feeds into GDP.

Recent Readings

DateValueChange
February 2026Updated 62 days ago
$314.8B
+4.2%
January 2026
$302.1B
+5.5%
December 2025
$286.3B
-

Historical Chart

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What do you think happens next?

Your projection for Exports of Goods & Services

AI Analysis

Analysis updated: Apr 2, 2026·Next refresh: ~1:05 AM EST

Bull Case

A reading of $314.8B with a rising trend signals robust external demand for domestically produced goods and services, consistent with strengthening global growth momentum heading into 2026. Rising exports contribute positively to GDP via the net exports component, and sustained export growth typically supports manufacturing employment, corporate revenues, and business investment. If the trend holds, it may indicate that trading partners are absorbing higher volumes despite lingering currency and logistics headwinds, reflecting genuine demand rather than transitory restocking.

Bear Case

As a coincident or lagging indicator, the current elevated export figure may reflect orders placed during an earlier period of stronger global demand that has since begun to soften, potentially overstating present economic strength. A reversal in trading partner growth, dollar appreciation, or escalating trade policy tensions—such as renewed tariffs or retaliatory measures—could compress export volumes in coming quarters without yet being visible in this reading. Additionally, a composition skewed toward cyclically sensitive goods like capital equipment or commodities would amplify downside risk if global industrial activity decelerates.

Macro Context

At $314.8B, exports sit within a broader macro environment characterized by uneven global recovery, persistent services trade expansion, and ongoing realignment of supply chains across geographies. This reading should be cross-referenced with new export orders from PMI surveys, freight volume indices, and trading partner GDP revisions to assess whether the rising trend has durable underlying support. Key thresholds to monitor include currency index movements—particularly DXY strength above the 105 level—and any deterioration in the ISM New Export Orders sub-index, which would serve as an earlier warning of demand softening ahead.

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